Wer österreichische Zeitungen liest, der wusste Anfang März – am Monatsersten kommen die neuen Zahlen – dass die Arbeitslosigkeit im Februar schon wieder gestiegen ist. Alleine, das ist schlicht falsch. Zahlen des Wifo zeigen, dass die Arbeitslosenrate zwischen August 2014 und Februar 2015 gleich geblieben ist. Die Presse schreibt trotzdem von einem „starken Anstieg im Februar“. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist in Österreich erneut gestiegen, schreiben Kurier.at, Oe24.at, Krone.at und Orf.at unisono, sie ist “weiter gestiegen”, Heute.at. Obwohl die Arbeitslosigkeit seit Monaten nicht mehr steigt, schreibt Wirtschaftsblatt.at: „Arbeitslosigkeit steigt auch im Februar ungebremst weiter“.
Warum machen die das?
Alle Medien des Landes berichten Monat für Monat die Zahlen des Sozialministeriums. Die offizielle Statistik lässt aber nur einen Vergleich mit dem Vorjahr zu. So ist die Arbeitslosigkeit im Februar im Vergleich zu 2014 sehr wohl gestiegen, das ist richtig . Das sagt aber rein gar nichts darüber aus, wie sich die Lage in den vergangenen Monaten entwickelt hat. Geht es weiter bergab? Oder sogar bergauf? Die offizielle Statistik verrät das nicht, österreichische Zeitungen titeln trotzdem regelmäßig damit, ohne die wirklichen Zahlen zu kennen.
Liest man dann in den jeweiligen Artikeln weiter, steht immer wieder „im Vergleich zum Vorjahr“. Für die meisten Menschen ist das aber zu spät, sie nehmen Nachrichten nur oberflächlich wahr. Der Titel ist die Nachricht. Viele, die weiterlesen, verstehen das den Statistiken zugrunde liegende Konzept nicht, da bin ich mir sicher. Wer will es ihnen verübeln, wenn sich anscheinend auch Journalisten schwer damit tun. So lesen Monat für Monat hunderttausende Menschen von steigenden Arbeitslosenzahlen, obwohl die Arbeitslosigkeit gerade gar nicht steigt.
Ein Blick hinter die Statistik
Die Zahlen des Sozialministeriums lassen sich mit jenen der Vormonate nicht vergleichen, weil es bei der Arbeitslosigkeit je nach Jahreszeit große Schwankungen gibt. In der Urlaubszeit brauchen Tourismus und Gastronomie zusätzliche Hände, im Winter steht der Bau still, vor Weihnachten stellt der Handel tausende zusätzliche Arbeitskräfte an.
So steigt die Zahl der Arbeitslosen jeden Jänner stark an. Das liegt aber nicht an einer Verschlechterung der Lage am Arbeitsmarkt, sondern etwa an befristeten Stellen im Handel und in Logistikzentren, die wieder wegfallen. Das passiert jedes Jahr. Eine Daumenregel: In den warmen Sommermonaten ist die Arbeitslosigkeit niedriger als sonst, in den Wintermonaten höher. Das lässt sich gut an den Zahlen von 2004 veranschaulichen.
Einige Jahre nach dem Platzen der Dotcom-Blase in den USA hatte sich die österreichische Wirtschaft wieder halbwegs erholt. Sie wuchs 2004 um satte 2,7 Prozent. Unternehmen trauten der Sache aber noch nicht ganz und hielten sich bei der Einstellung neuer Leute zurück. Die bereinigte Arbeitslosigkeit ist so über das ganze Jahre hinweg halbwegs konstant geblieben, wie die rosa Linie in der Grafik zeigt. Die Lage am Arbeitsmarkt hat sich also weder verbessert noch verschlechtert. Die blaue Linie zeigt die Arbeitslosenrate inklusive der saisonalen Schwankungen. Über die Entwicklung während des Jahres verrät sie uns wenig.
Das ist der Grund warum das Sozialministerium jedes Monat nur Vergleiche zum Vorjahresmonat zieht. Die blaue Linie schwankt jährlich auf und ab, daraus lässt sich nichts schließen. Vergleicht man den vergangenen Februar mit Februar 2014, dann pfuschen Sommer, Winter, Feiertage & Co hingegen nicht in die Statistik. Wieso das Sozialministerium nicht gleich die rosa Linie angibt, wie das etwa auf EU-Ebene und in den USA üblich ist, ist mir ein Rätsel.
Wenn sich Sozialminister Rudolf Hundstorfer Rat von Ökonomen holt, zeigen sie ihm ja auch die rosa Linie. In den USA gibt sich keine Zeitung mit schwer greifbaren Vorjahresvergleichen ab. Dort wird gespannt auf die Entwicklung von Jobs und Arbeitslosen im Vergleich zum Vormonat des selben Jahres geschaut. Wie uns die rosa Linie helfen kann, die aktuelle Lage zu verstehen, zeigt die nächste Grafik.
Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist vor allem in der ersten Hälfte des Vorjahrs stark gestiegen. Danach ist sie stagniert (im März 2015 ist sie von 10,3 auf 10,4 geklettert, aber das spielt hier keine Rolle). Gibt man die dunkelblaue Linie, also die unbereinigte Arbeitslosenrate, in die Grafik, lässt sich gut veranschaulichen, wieso die Wiedergabe der Statistik durch das Sozialministerium und die meisten österreichischen Medien verzerrt.
Wer ausschließlich die Zahlen des Sozialministeriums verwendet, kann lediglich den Punkt ganz rechts auf der blauen Linie (Februar 2015) mit dem Punkt ganz links oben (Februar 2014) vergleichen. Dieser Vergleich zeigt dann eben einen Anstieg.
Die Arbeitslosigkeit soll dem AMS zufolge noch drei weitere Jahre lang nach oben gehen. Wenn sie es einmal ein paar Monate lang nicht tut, würde ich davon auch gerne in Medien hören. Make it pink.
Foto: Lucie Gerhardt /pixelio.de
PS: Die Wifo-Daten waren mit etwas Überredungskunst zu erhalten. Das Institut schickt sie mir jetzt automatisch ein paar Stunden nach der Herausgabe der Zahlen vom Sozialministerium. Auf Nachfrage sind sie sicherlich auch für alle anderen Medien erhältlich. Am besten Helmut Mahringer kontaktieren. Eine monatliche Presseaussendung wolle man nicht machen, hat man mir gesagt. Wenn ein paar Medien nachfragen, ändern sie vielleicht ihre Meinung.
PS2: Die bereinigte Arbeitslosenrate ist ein statistisches Konstrukt. Sie existiert „da draußen“ nicht, sie wird durch ein ökonomisches Modell berechnet. Forscher stellen sich die Frage, wie hoch die Arbeitslosenrate im Jahresschnitt wäre, wenn die Wirtschaft in derselben Verfassung wäre wie im jetzigen Monat. Je aktueller die Zahlen, desto wackeliger sind sie auch. Ein Anstieg von 0,1 oder 0,2 Prozentpunkten kann so der statistischen Schwankungsbreite unterliegen und muss keine Aussagekraft haben. Außerdem gibt es für den Monatsersten immer nur vorläufige Beschäftigungszahlen. Die Anzahl der Erwerbstätigen entwickelt sich aber auch nicht so unerwartet, als dass man sie nicht trotzdem verwenden könnte.
PS3: Weil das AMS derzeit die Anzahl der Schulungen massiv zurückfährt, machen die Statistiken auch Experten Kopfschmerzen. So habe ich im Februar mit Berufung auf den Wifo-Ökonomen Helmut Mahringer selbst geschrieben, dass die Arbeitslosigkeit leicht gestiegen ist. Das hat er unter Bewusstsein der Schwankungsbreite wohl über den Daumen gebrochen geschätzt. Das Wifo hat bis zum Februar die Arbeitslosenrate selbst nur ohne Schulungsteilnehmer bereinigt. Weil viele Arbeitslose, die früher in Schulungen gesteckt sind, jetzt in die offizielle Statistik fallen, steigt die Arbeitslosenrate exklusive Schulungsteilnehmer. Erst Anfang März konnte ich selbst einen Blick auf die bereinigten Zahlen inklusive Schulungen werfen, die von der AMS-Reform nicht berührt werden. Sofern sie das Wifo weiterhin berechnet, werde ich die um saisonale Schwankungen bereinigte Arbeitslosenrate inklusive Schulungsteilnehmer als aussagekräftigsten Indikator für die Lage am Arbeitsmarkt verwenden.
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